汇丰银行-东南亚-泰国宏观经济-泰国二季度国内生产总值受消费推动增长超预期-20170821-Thailand 2Q17 GDP Fuelled by consumption-20170821-HSBC

Economics - Data Reactions 21 August 2017 Thailand 2Q17 GDP Fuelled by consumption 4Thailand’s growth surprised on the upside. Real GDP expanded 3.7% y-o-y, higher than consensus and HSBC forecast of 3.2% 4Despite high household debt, private consumption growth remained solid at 3.0% y-o-y compared to 3.2% in 1Q 4Despite below-target inflation, we forecast no policy rate change from the Bank of Thailand for the remainder of the year, in light strong GDP growth in 1H and rising household debt Facts - Thailand’s 2Q GDP rose 3.7% y-o-y in the second quarter after expanding at 3.3% 1Q. The 2Q print was notably higher than HSBC and consensus forecast of 3.2%. - Meanwhile, GDP also rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3% q-o-q, also higher than the 1% consensus forecast. - Private and government consumption contributed most to growth in 2Q17 at 1.6 ppt and 0.4 ppt, respectively. Meanwhile, net exports dragged down growth by 0.9 ppt, which was less than the previous quarter (-1.7 ppt). Implications The Thai economy has beaten growth expectations for two straight quarters due in large part to strong private consumption (Figure 1). Despite growing more slowly at 3.0% y-o-y compared to the the previous quarter (previous 3.2%), private consumption still contributed 1.6 ppt to GDP in 2Q, which is the same as its contribution in 1Q. Government consumption, which is a relatively small percentage of GDP, also contributed 0.4 ppt in 2Q compared to its 0.0 ppt contribution in the previous quarter, providing the additional boost to exceed our expectations. In fact, the country’s 3.7% y-o-y growth in 2Q was its fastest pace in four years. As we have previously noted, however, much of the consumption growth in Thailand has been fuelled by a rising household debt. Household debt has climbed steadily from around 50% of GDP in 2007 to now hovering around 80%, prompting government officials to implement new macroprudential measures. (See: Bank of Thailand: A unanimous hold, 16 August 2017). For example, effective 1 September, credit card holders earning below BHT 50,000 are no longer eligible to receive credit limits of five times their monthly incomes. The credit line for new unsecured personal loans for applicants earning below BHT 30,000 will also be limited to 1.5 times their monthly income (Reuters, 27 July 2017). We thus expect these new measures to discourage consumption slightly in the second half of the year. Noelan Arbis Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4325 noelan.arbis@hsbc.com.hk View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com Issuer of report The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must...