中美战略竞争中的中国全球影响力评估报告-兰德-2021-168页

C O R P O R AT I O N MICHAEL J. MAZARR, BRYAN FREDERICK, JOHN J. DRENNAN, EMILY ELLINGER, KELLY EUSEBI, BRYAN ROONEY, ANDREW STRAVERS, EMILY YODER Understanding Influence in the Strategic Competition with China For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA290-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0642-2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Over the past two decades, China’s role in the geopolitical landscape has grown, particularly as a result of the country’s rising economic and military power. Thus, U.S. leaders now view China as a strategic competitor—one that seeks to upend the post–World War II liberal international order. An integral part of this competition is the contest for influence in the international system. This report examines China’s drive for power and influence around the world and the results of those efforts. More specifically, we assess China’s ability to use various mechanisms of influence to shape the policies and behavior of the 20 countries examined, as well as the lessons that these examples offer for the wider issue of influence in the United States’ strategic competition with China. With this study, we aim to produce a transferable framework and other tools of analysis that can provide reliable means of assessing bilateral influence relationships in other cases. The research to assess the factors described in this report was completed in mid-2020. The analysis here does not evaluate developments after ...