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J.P. 摩根-美股-运输与物流业-2020年Q2业绩预览:在复苏的道路上,但供给方面给TL利率踩了刹车-2020.7.9-101页

  • 时间:2020 年
  • 分类:其它
  • 页数:101
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icon J.P. 摩根-美股-运输与物流业-2020年Q2业绩预览:在复苏的道路上,但供给方面给TL利率踩了刹车-2020.7.9-101页

J.P. 摩根-美股-运输与物流业-2020年Q2业绩预览:在复苏的道路上,但供给方面给TL利率踩了刹车-2020.7.9-101页
North America Equity Research 09 July 2020 Transportation & Logistics 2Q20 Earnings Preview: On the Road to Recovery, But Supply-Side Pumping the Brakes on TL Rates The constant stream of virtual conferences, road shows, and fireside chats over the last three months will mercifully come to an end next week with the beginning of 2Q20 earnings. It is tempting to assume results will not matter much for the stocks after this deluge of updates, but we still expect stock performance will be differentiated by execution in 2Q20 and the 2H20 outlook as expectations are re-calibrated. This environment will likely create more stock movements on the quarter than usual and we favor railroads with operating momentum in 2Q20 such as CP and CNR running record train lengths despite falling volumes while UNP productivity turned positive even before activity stabilized. We would avoid the Eastern rails which faced more truck competition and weaker volumes in the quarter, with CSX at risk of missing consensus following a noticeable deviation from previously stellar operating performance. NSC remains our top pick overall in the early stages of a network transformation but we would revisit after the largest volume drop in the group stunted recent productivity gains. Our favored overall theme is UPS where the new CEO can continue the narrative for stronger parcel rates started by FedEx last week at a time when demand for capacity has never been higher. We are also downgrading our view on the truckload rate cycle after revisiting supply-side dynamics to address growing expectations for a capacity crunch in 2H20. We believe the new wave of stimulus for smaller carriers in the form of lower fuel costs and direct financial support will more than offset the normal Class 8 supply side contraction which began last year when cancellations and inventories spiked. Our review of Paycheck Protection Program data found TL and LTL carriers were material beneficiaries of loans which can be disbursed for another 24 weeks. Our updated truckload outlook merits a downgrade of two small cap stocks with the most leverage to higher rates, HUBG and USX, to Neutral from Overweight. We are also cautious on KNX into the quarter based on difficulties balancing a larger one-way network relative to peers with the additional risk of disappointing increasingly elevated expectations for stronger 2H20 rates. Airfreight and Surface Transportation Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC (1-212) 622-1023 brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com Bloomberg JPMA OSSENBECK J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Kellen J Curry (1-212) 622-0717 kellen.j.curry@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Matt V Fallon (1-212) 622-6431 matt.v.fallon@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Secur...
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