乌克兰战争对全球贸易和投资的影响（英）-世界银行-2022.5-84页

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized TRADE, INVESTMENT AND COMPETITIVENESS TRADE, INVESTMENT AND COMPETITIVENESS EQUITABLE GROWTH, FINANCE & INSTITUTIONS INSIGHT The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and Investment Edited by Michele Ruta 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: TiborCarPhoto / iStock >>> Contents Acknowledgements 4 About the authors 5 Executive Summary 6 M. Ruta 1. Effects on trade and income of developing countries 11 M. Chepeliev, M. Maliszewska and M S E Pereira 2. Effects on Food Trade 27 M. Ruta, N. Rocha and A. Espitia 3. Effects on Global Logistics and Connectivity 39 J F. Arvis, C. Rastogi and D. Saslavsky 4. Effects on Ukraine’s key (non-food) exports and specific GVC 44 J-C Maur 5. The Effects of Russia’s global value-chain participation 57 D. Winkler, L. Wuester and D. Knight 6. Effects on Global FDI 70 Y. Liu 7. Effects on Global Tourism 75 A. Pio, A. Beath and R C. Kuo 8. Long term effects of the war in Ukraine on global value chains M. Ruta 80